ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis: An opportunity to buy gold as pressure on prices continues

Gold ETPs saw outflows of US$53mn as prices continue to drop on further signs of a potential rate hike in June….

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– Larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventory pushed Brent crude above the US$50/bbl. for the first time since November 2015.

– ETPs flows trends in industrial metals are volatile but more diversified across the commodity sector.

Gold ETPs recorded second largest weekly outflows in 2016 as prices retreat near its 2 months low. In line with the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes report released on the 18th of May, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have also been hinted in their speech on a higher probability for the Fed to hike rates again in June amidst concerns over the UK Brexit. However, the odds, derived from reading of the Fed Fund Futures, remain low, at 30%, highlighting that the uncertainty over the Fed next month move will likely continue to weigh on the metal price until then. The US dollar, on the other hand, rose 2.7% over the past month adding to the current downward pressure on commodities. In our model, we estimate the fair value of gold at US$1,250/oz. for year end 2016, assuming an inflation of 2% in the US and speculative net positioning falls back to 75,000. We, therefore, believe that the current price level should be seen as a potential buying opportunity for investors.

Oil ETPs recorded outflows for the seventh consecutive week as prices continue to recover. Oil prices rose 1.6% last week, trading above the US$50/bbl. for the first time since November 2015. As a result, oil ETPs recorded outflows for the seventh consecutive week, mainly out of WTI crude ETPs. While the US oil benchmark currently trades slightly below its European peers, investors fear that US shale oil production may return faster than expected, capping the potential gain on the WTI crude price while Brent crude should continue to benefit from depleting oil production in the North Sea. US crude stockpiles fell more than expected in the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report as US oil production continued to decline at the same time, lending support to oil prices. We believe next week’s OPEC meeting will not have any meaningful impact on the global oil market. Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US EIA raised their global demand growth forecast for 2016 to 1.4 million barrels per day on higher demand from China and India.

Industrial metals ETPs have been enjoying net inflows of US$38mn in 2016. While flows remain highly volatile from one week to another, the momentum is building up as industrial metals ETPs were the only commodity sector posting positive flows last week. Investor interest has traditionally been focussed on copper and aluminium ETPs. We however note that recent flows trends suggest a more diversified exposure across the sector with nickel ETPs actually recording positive flows over the past year. Increasing signs that China economy is stabilising combined with continued capex cuts from miners should eventually support industrial metals prices.

Key events to watch this week. A number of manufacturing and nonmanufacturing PMIs are due over the course of the week along with retail sales and confidence data. While the European Central Bank will decide on its interest rate policy on Thursday, investors will also be waiting for labour market data for May from key countries, above all the US non-farm payroll on Friday.



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