Der starke Anstieg führender Indikatoren, die üppige Liquidität und die niedrigen Zentralbankzinsen könnten nach Ansicht der Experten der Deutschen Bank neue Asset-Price-Blasen bilden helfen. …
Aber auch in den Anleihemärkten dürfte es zu Verschiebungen kommen. So erscheint der Bereich der Kurzläufer relativ teuer. Als Konsequenz dieser Einschätzungen gibt es im ETF-Trading-Portfolio eine Reihe von Veränderungen:
Die 25-Prozent-Position „IBOXX Euro Sovereigns Eurozone 1-3 year ETF“ wurde verkauft und stattdessen eine 25-Prozent-Position „Short IBOXX Euro Sovereigns Eurozone ETF“ erworben. Ebenfalls neu ins Trading Portfolio aufgenommen wurde eine 10-Prozent-Position „DJ STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 ETF“, in dem 100 dividendenstarke Werte enthalten sind.
Derzeit liegen die Dividendenrenditen über den Anleiherenditen. Mit gutem Gewinn verkauft wurde dafür die 10-Prozent-Position „DJ STOXX 600 Health Care ETF“. Die Analysten halten weiter an der Position „DJ STOXX 600 Banks Short ETF“ fest, auch wenn diese derzeit einen negativen Performancebeitrag bringt..
Trading Ideas ETF: Ideas and Flows – Deutsche Bank AG
Trading Ideas August: Buy ETF “DJ Stoxx Global select dividend 100”
Banks and bonds look expensive
The ample liquidity and low central bank rates as well as the signs of a stabilisation of the world economy have significantly reduced investors’ risk aversion……
This development considerably has supported the credit market, and credit spreads have tightened palpably. The favourable development on the credit market has led to a strong rally on the equity markets over the past few weeks, with the Eurostoxx50 rising by 14.0% and the Stoxx600 by 11.9% since 10 July.
Buy ETF “DJ Stoxx Global select dividend 100”
In difficult times more investors look into old classical concepts which have worked well over long periods like value investing. A high dividend yield is the most simple measure of value investing. Companies with high dividend yield tend to be companies from mature sectors.
Companies with high dividend yield normally don’t have the strategy to re-invest their earnings to grow strongly, but distribute a significant part of their earnings to their share holders. In addition, dividend yields for the overall markets look currently high relative to bond yields in the US as well as in Europe (see charts below). The attractiveness of dividend yields relative to bond yields is an argument in favour of investments which generate dividend yield compared to investments which generate bond yields.
The Banking sector is up 130% since 9 March, but it is still 26% below the level of 12 months ago. Over the past four weeks Banks have performed strongly, in stark contrast to our Underweight position. Several banks have reported surprisingly high Q2 earnings with a strong performance in investment banking outweighing rising losses from bad loans. Banks with positive Q2 reporting include Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, Unicredit, Standard Chartered,
BBVA and Erste Bank.
The need for banks to reduce leverage could also reduce new business opportunities in 2009. Our analysts see regulations as a serious threat to European banks’ being willing to restart lending. The EU Commission proposed plans to introduce paneuropean counter-cyclical provisioning to all European banks using the Spanish model, and this could put the brakes on loan growth. Admittedly, the downgrade momentum for European banks has slowed a bit, to 4.2% over the past month and to 23.1% over the past three months. But earnings uncertainty for Banks remains very high, twice as high as for the overall market. High earnings uncertainty is reflected by huge amounts of “toxic assets” on the banks’ balance sheets. Risks to our call include a continuing strong recovery in equity markets in general, a faster normalization of the banking business than expected and takeovers in the banking sector, which could drive the sector valuation further upwards.
Source: Trading Ideas ETF: Ideas and Flows – Deutsche Bank AG